One of the concerns in terms of people moving to Victoria is that we are hitting the tipping point for baby boomers where there are less people turning 65 this year than last year.

From Statscan 2024: People aged 65 and older increased by 3.4% (+262,394 people), mainly because of the aging of the large cohorts of baby boomers. According to the latest population projections (M1 medium-growth scenario), Canadians aged 65 and older are the group expected to increase at the fastest pace almost every year until the projections end in 2073.

Ryan Cook: I suspect that you are misreading what that statistic actually means.in terms of housing. What it does not mean is that more people are turning 65 this year than the previous year. What it does mean is the total over 65 is growing. It also means that seniors will be a larger percentage of the population in years to come but that reflects a very low birth rate in the country. But it is not that more people are entering the retired house market rather it is that increasingly more people are entering the retirement home and nursing market.

I tried posting a population pyramid but the program wont let me. But if you want an easy comparison there are less people today between the age of 50 t0 54 than there are between the age of 60 to 64. A lot less, and that is before you take into account how many of those 54 year olds will die before reaching 64. For housing markets, the other stat that is important here is that we will be seeing an increasing number of people over 80, but a large percentage of those will be in retirement homes or nursing homes and out of the standard real estate markets.

The baby boom curve was not evenly distributed, the first half being larger than the second half. Happy to discuss this further but look at the actual stats can numbers first.

Google Stats Canada to confirm

In 2024 there were 2,710,000 people aged 60 to 64

In 2024 there were 2,446,000 people aged 50 to 54.

Over the next ten years even without taking death into account there will be less people turning 65 over the next ten years. Then figure out that the difference is even greater consider the number of fifty year olds that dont make it to sixty five.