The population of downtown Victoria and its periphery areas grew by 12.3% between 2016 and 2021 while the Capital’s suburbs grew at faster rates, according to the latest census data released by Statistics Canada splitting out population growth by distances from the nation's city centres.

 

For the purposes of a national report on population growth among Canadian downtowns, Statistics Canada lumped the entirety of downtown-proper, Harris Green, James Bay (including Beacon Hill Park) and North Park as within downtown Victoria, plus portions of Vic West, Burnside Gorge, Fairfield, Rockland, Fernwood and Quadra/Hillside as partially in downtown Victoria.

 

The image below illustrates the boundaries used by Statistics Canada, with the City of Victoria's approximate boundaries for downtown-proper and Harris Green added for reference.

 

Borders of downtown Victoria-proper and Harris Green (in white), also known as Victoria's traditional downtown, compared to the 'downtown' area identified by Statistics Canada (in black).  Statistics Canada/Citified.ca

 

This expanded downtown area, comprised of just over eight square kilometres of the City of Victoria’s 19.3 square kilometre total, is significantly larger than Victoria’s traditional downtown core that spans (roughly) between Belleville Street in the south to Chatham Street and Caledonia Avenue in the north, and east to Cook Street, totalling approximately 1/5th or 1/6th of the land mass identified as downtown Victoria in the census.

 

In 2016, this expanded area’s population was 41,229, and contained 48,345 jobs, according to Statistics Canada. At a growth rate of 12.3%, the area’s population rose by approximately 5,100 new inhabitants over five years to 46,309 people.

 

Compared nationally, population growth in Victoria’s ‘downtown’ surpassed the majority of Canada’s census metropolitan areas and smaller population centres, with only ‘downtown’ Halifax (growing at a rate of 26.1%), Montreal at a rate of 24.2%, Kelowna at 23.8%, Calgary at 21.0%, Gatineau (QC) at 18.3%, Kingston (ON) at 16.2%, and Toronto at 16.1% ahead of the BC Capital.

 

Vancouver’s ‘downtown’ grew by 7.4%, Nanaimo’s by 7.1%, Abbotsford-Chilliwack’s by 11.8% and Kamloops' by 11.4%.

 

Edmonton, Regina, Lethbridge, Red Deer, Quebec City and Saguenay lost people in their downtown cores by -0.5% to -2.0%. Edmonton and Regina lost 1.1% and 1.6% of their downtown populations, respectively.

 

Between 2016 and 2021, Victoria’s suburban communities outpaced the growth of urban communities, which comes as no surprise after census data from earlier in the year showed Victoria’s West Shore as having absorbed more than half of the south Island’s population growth over five years, with one-third of the regional growth in the City of Langford, alone (11,232 more people resided in Langford in 2021 compared to 2016, out of a total of 29,467 new regional residents).

 

Statistics Canada data now shows that Victoria’s intermediate suburbs, defined as communities at a driving distance of 20 to 30 minutes from 'downtown,' grew at a rate of 15% over five years, while distant suburbs (defined as requiring a drive of 30 minutes or more) grew at at rate of 13.1%. Near suburbs, situated 10 to 20 minutes from ‘downtown Victoria,’ grew by 10.4%.

 

Victoria’s urban or downtown fringe, however, also known as neighbourhoods less than 10 minutes away from ‘downtown,’ just barely increased their populations with a growth rate of 1.6%.

 

Population density per square kilometre settled at 5,709 in the downtown area, 2,616 in the downtown fringe, 826 10-20 minutes from downtown, 296 20-30 minutes from downtown, and 89 per square kilometre living 30 or more minutes from downtown.

 

The share of the region's population was 11.7% downtown, 36.1% in the downtown fringe, 32.4% 10-20 minutes away, 13.1% 20-30 minutes away, and 6.8% 30-plus minutes away.

 

The population by distance was 46,309 in the downtown, 143,418 in the fringe or within a 10 minute drive, 128,640 10-20 minutes away, 51,933 20-30 minutes away, and 26,937 30-plus minutes away.

 

The average nationally for these sectors of population growth was 7.1% for ‘downtown areas,’ 10.7% for the urban fringe, 9.6% for near suburbs, 5.9% for intermedia suburbs, and 23.2% for distant suburbs. The Capital Region, constrained by natural and political boundaries, has a much smaller urban footprint than most larger Canadian population centres, therefore limiting growth opportunities within the distant suburbs category.

 

2021 population census data, per south Island sub-region and municipality (full 2021 census data for the Capital)

The urban core, comprised of Esquimalt, Oak Bay, Saanich, the City of Victoria-proper and View Royal (a former West Shore municipality) grew by 9,436 people to a population of 256,700 from 246,169, an increase of 4.3%. Without View Royal pushing up the core's average, the growth rate would have landed at just 4%.

 

The Saanich Peninsula, comprised of Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney grew by 2,203 people to a population of 41,938 from 39,735, an increase of 5.5%.

 

The West Shore, comprised of Colwood, Highlands, Langford, Metchosin and Sooke (not including the unincorporated area of East Sooke) grew by 16,035 people to a population of 88,170 from 72,135, a growth rate of 22.2%.

 

The West Shore’s growth surpassed the core’s growth in terms of people by a significant margin of 6,599 individuals. In the 2016 census, the core outgrew the West Shore by nearly 4,100 people despite the West Shore’s high rate of growth.

 

By the numbers, from the highest growth rates to the lowest, here is what the 2021 census shows for south Island municipalities:

 

Langford grew to a population of 46,584 from 35,342, an increase of 11,232 people at a growth rate of 31.8%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 19,968.

 

Sooke grew to a population of 15,076 from 13,001, an increase of 2,075 people at a growth rate of 16%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 6,431.

 

Highlands grew to a population of 2,482 from 2,225, an increase of 257 people at a growth rate of 11.6%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 927.

 

Colwood grew to a population of 18,961 from 16,859, an increase of 2,102 people at a growth rate of 12.5%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 7,688.

 

View Royal grew to a population of 11,575 from 10,480, an increase of 1,167 people at a growth rate of 11.2%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 5,175.

 

Metchosin grew to a population of 5,067 from 4,708, an increase of 359 people at a growth rate of 7.6%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 1,938.

 

North Saanich grew to a population of 12,235 from 11,249, an increase of 986 people at a growth rate of 8.8%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 5,235.

 

The City of Victoria grew to a population of 91,867 from 85,792, an increase of 6,075 people at a growth rate of 7.1%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 53,070.

 

Sidney grew to a population of 12,318 from 11,672, an increase of 646 people at a growth rate of 5.5%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 6,321.

 

Central Saanich grew to a population of 17,385 from 16,814, an increase of 571 people at a growth rate of 3.4%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 7,621.

 

Saanich grew to a population of 117,735 from 114,148, an increase of 3,587 people at a growth rate of 3.1%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 50,064.

 

Esquimalt fell to a population of 17,533 from 17,655, a decrease of 122 people at a decline of 0.7%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 8,995.

 

Oak Bay fell to a population of 17,990 from 18,094, a decrease of 104 people at a decline of 0.6%, with a 2021 dwelling count of 8,168.

 

Outside of incorporated areas, Juan de Fuca 1, which includes East Sooke and Shirley past Sooke, among other small enclaves, grew by 9.9% to 5,132 people from 4,670, with a 2021 dwelling count of 2,459.

 

The small town of Port Renfrew at the terminus of the Capital Region’s Highway 14 corridor, saw its population jump from 144 people five years-ago to 262, an 82% increase. The village has 373 dwellings, many of which are vacation properties.

 

Across the Malahat, the Cowichan Valley grew by 6.3% over the last five years to a population of 89,013 from 83,739, and has 40,174 dwellings as of 2021. C

 

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