The month of August was another period of “slow and steady” property sales with little variation in price points, according to the latest Multiple Listings Service (MLS) data from the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB).

 

Total transactions numbered 544 for the month, reports VREB, split into 273 single-family homes, 164 condominiums and 68 townhomes, with the remainder comprised of manufactured homes and commercial sales on MLS. Compared to last year, the month saw 66 more deals, although this year’s tally was below the ten-year average with an apex of 979 sales in 2020.

 

“Slow and steady was the major theme once again on the south Island, with surprising resiliency, even indifference, to the current interest rate environment,” says Victoria-based realtor Marko Juras (see website), adding that “what’s ultimately grounding this market is there remains little choice among re-sale listings, while demand for housing in Greater Victoria continues to outpace supply.”

 

Active listings in August reached 2,490 units, a far cry from 5,034 counted in 2012 and well below the threshold of a balanced market given the growth in population over the last decade, and the added number of newly built residences. New listings, in fact, fell from 1,356 in May, to just 1,095, also lower than every month between March and July.

 

“If sales were at today’s numbers, but new listings were twice what we’re seeing, and total listings were above 4,000 or closer to 5,000, sellers would be facing pressures from an over-supply. We’re just not seeing that today, so prices remain elevated and competition for desirable properties is leading to bidding wars and even unconditional offers,” Juras notes.

 

And stay high, the values have.

 

In August, the average paid for a single-family-home was $1,348,662, lower than July’s $1,374,115, albeit higher than the 2023 average of $1,292,481, and even above the 2022 all-time high annual average of $1,333,869. The median landed at $1,165,000, right in line with the year’s $1,150,000 median average.

 

Condominiums averaged $619,128, a dip from the January-through August average of $634,703. However, the month’s $550,000 median was right in line with the January-August median average of $550,000.

 

Townhomes averaged $827,812 with a $773,073 median, both figures higher than the year’s averages of $806,395 and $765,000, respectively.

 

With a perennially slower fall season now in effect, Juras believes demand could wane slightly given the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes. However, there comes a turning point for buyers in-waiting who may ultimately step down from a single-family-home to a townhome, and from a townhome to a condominium, to avoid the impacts of a runaway rental market.

 

“There’s no question buyers are qualifying for less today than they did earlier in the year, but regardless of what they qualify for, they are eager to shop the market and entertain options available to them,” Juras says. “Given the high cost of rentals, many people are choosing to lower their expectations just to enter the market, rather than pay market rates for rental offerings in Victoria.”

 

Juras also says that Victoria’s home sales are driven in part by moneyed buyers entering the market from other cities, who bring equity to their purchases and may require only a small mortgage top-up to make up the difference between their previous market and Victoria. Interest rates for that buyer segment, therefore, have less impact than on buyers mortgaging the majority of their purchase.

 

And one key factor impacting locals is unlikely to go away, even if interest rates rise, and even if prices take a dip in response.

 

“An average Victoria resident can no longer afford an average Victoria house. That’s a fact, and it becomes more ingrained with every year. No matter what the markets do, it is highly, highly unlikely that we’ll see single-family-home prices recede to such a level as for average houses to be affordable at an average wage. I understand there are people waiting, and hoping, for this to happen, but it’s clear that ship has sailed.” C

 

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